Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
